In my previous post about Google’s Knol and the role of the author I posed the question, in what extent do collaborative networks need author(itie)s to aggregate information correctly. And by correctly I mean, objectively - taking note of all sides of the subject.

Condorcet Jury Theorem

First I’ll try to explain why aggregation of knowledge can actually bring better results, than the opinion of a single expert. I’m based on the assumption of the Condorcet Jury Theorem, which supports that the probability of a correct answer by a majority of the group increases toward 100 percent as the size of the group increases. The theorem is based on the hypothesis that people are answering a question with two possible answers (one right and one wrong) and that their answers are not random – on the contrary they have more than a 50 percent probability of being correct.

Naturally, extensive criticism has been leveled at the binary logic of the Condorcet theorem, since a question has usually a wide spectrum of answers. But recent studies have shown, that even when the group is dealing with multiple options (instead of a true and false selection), there is still a high probability that it will actually conclude to the right answer, as long as the individuals tend to choose the right option.

The Catch

But there is a catch to the theorem: Correct aggregation of information does not simply rely on a large group of people. This group should fill a number of preconditions (which can in a way also be identified as an emergent behavior). During my research and study (and partly also during my own personal thinking) I collected these preconditions:

• diversity
• independence
• indirect control
• self-organization

The Concept

I’ll start a series of posts about each specific point. In that way I want to advocate for wikipedia’s system (or any collaborative network, that does not encourage ownership) within the scope of the discussion about google’s Knol. Namely, my assumption is that any participatory system that promotes ownership (authorship) and control, will eventually produce one-sided information.

If you have any additions or thoughts on the subject, improvize - contact me.